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Peeper Market

 The swing between the low of the period and the high was/is about 9cents/lb on ASTA pepper basis. An interesting note is that, very little business has been reported at the lower levels, which indicates to us that the quantitative available at the lower levels were questionable/suspect. Furthermore, we saw good demand and trading at this week’s close at the higher levels. Vietnam still is playing close attention the Indian exchanges and will probably do so throughout the year. Either way one is to play with the Vietnam statistics, it seems most likely that Vietnam has exported over 50% of their total crop + carryover.  The real question is regarding the balance 50%t – how much of that is being held against forward commitments?? – How much is farmer “iron stock”? The bullish tone continues in India with some price vacillations on daily basis. There are no dependable crop numbers emanating from Indonesia, which is the next important crop. The crop numbers range from a low of 15,000mt to a high of 38,000mt. We feel, rightly or not that the crop should be a minimum of 30,000mt with unsold carryover (as of today) of 5,000mt. One day we shall see how accurate the numbers are. Brasil and Sarawak remain steady with limited activities. The low import statistics into the USA for the first quarter 2010 on both black and white indicate that the inventory pipelines are empty.  The continued strength and scarcity of spot merchandise is further indicative of the dearth of stocks in the local market. The continuing USFDA delays certainly are an additional problem factor. We see increased demand from the USA and European consuming markets. Some of the pre- Ramadan purchasing is also entering the market for the FAQ qualities. The beginning of Ramadan for 2010 is on August 11th, which essentially means that the majority of the needs must be purchased/shipped prior to July 15th.  White pepper continues firm with limited and mixed price indications being given from Indonesia. Indonesia continues to import 500-800mt of Vietnamese White pepper monthly.


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